Jupiler League Week 16 [17-8-3 |+25.848 units | +27.79% ROI]

[Costanza]

2 more weeks before the winter break arrives, some very interesting matches are comming up this weekend. Should be plenty of choise for some valuable bets.

Season 07/08 Record:
Picks = 28
Won / Lost / Push = 17 / 8 / 3 (68 % Winners)
Units Bet = 93 units
Units Return = 118.848 units
Average Stake = 3.30 units
Profit = + 25.848 Units
ROI = +27.79 %

Jupiler League Betting Record Week 15: 1-0-0,+ 3,060 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 14: 0-1-0, - 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 13: 0-0-0, +0,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 12: 0-1-0, - 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 11: 1-0-0,+ 4,115 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 10: 1-0-1,+ 1,640 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 09: 1-1-0,+ 1,290 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 08: 0-1-1,- 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 07: 2-0-0,+ 4,947 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 06: 2-1-0,+ 4,634 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 05: 0-1-0, - 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 04: 2-1-0, + 1,983 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 03: 2-0-0, + 8,800 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 02: 3-1-0, + 3,665 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 01: 2-0-1, + 3,714 Units
-> http://belgianleague.blogabet.com

 

[Costanza]

Pick 29:FC Brusselsvs Cercle Brugge (-0.25) (5 Units) @ 2.030
(odds have dropped everywhere but are still available when betting with Interwetten & Bet365 but won't stay up very long probably)

Brussels who didn't play last week are playing against Cercle Brugge who are still the revelation of the season. They have been one of the most consictent teams so far this year always playing on a high level. They are now in 3th place and I'm not affraid that they will get too optimistic and start dreaming. This team is very focussed and coach Glen De Boeck has don a fantastic job so far to keep his team sharp not underestimating the opponents. Cercle had a draw in last away match against Lokeren in a match were 2 penaltys were not given to them and an offside goal for the opponents counted. Brussels also played a draw in their last match againt Moeskroen who should have won that match. There is not much team news, Cercle Brugge is still having their full squad available and Brussels is still suffering a lot of injuries. Cercle has shown more then enough so far this season to be more of a favorite in this match. They have played better then Club Brugge, Anderlecht & Genk all together but still don't seem to get any respect from the bookmakers. I just don't see Brussels keeping the 3 points at home, but with their defensive play they could be able to take a point in case cercle has a complete off day or luck turns against them again. I would not be surprised if Cercle was able to win another match with a lot of supremace and more then 1 goal difference. They've leaned their lesson a while ago with a small margin lead and now keep going on the offense whether they are only 1 ahead or by more then 2. There are only a limited amount of tickets available for the visitors and their won't be any available for sale at the night of the match. Not sure why this is the case. Because of the good play of cerlce they have now got a much bigger fanbase allready and overall good support in away games. I'm aware that this is one of those matches that look easy and many times end up going wrong, still I'm confident enough that this team won't underestimate things and once again give it a 100% keeping their momentum going. My estimated chances 53% (at least) for Cercle to win this match.

Odds have dropped at most places allready but they are still available at this moment (probably gonna need to be fast) when combining Interwetten & Bet365.

4.23 Units on Cercle Brugge Win @ 2.40 (Interwetten)
0.77 Units on Draw @ 3.25 (Bet365)

So 5/10 on Cercle Brugge (-0.25) @ 2.03 (Interwetten + Bet365)
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Pinnacle & asian bookies opened at 1.926 and are by now down to 1.833 which still has it's value. I would really be surprised in case Brussels would win this one.

 

[Costanza]

I'm really concidering a last minute bet on tonights match, will have it up in case it's a go in a bit more then an hour.

 

[ARUKIDNME]

Good Luck.

I will look at this game again much closer now.

I was considering Dender +1 at Home tomorrow but not sure yet.

:toast:

 

[Costanza]

was going to take Zulte-Waregem (+1) @ 1.935 (Pinnacle)

But I'm skipping it anyway since I'm not 100% convinced that it will win even though I still see value in it. Genk hasn't been impressive this year and they are now without 3 key players who are suspended. Their defense has not been that solid and they haven't been able to win more 1 match this season with more then 1 goal difference. This is still the season they have to comfirm last years run and this is always is very difficult which is proven here once again. Zulte-Waregem in their 3th season in the division seem to have found their turn and have their full squad available. They are able to score but haven't really got a good away reputation even though they allready proved that they can play on result againt big teams. They also only lost one away game so far this season with more then 1 goal difference. I'm currently listening to an interview on the radio and Genk seems to be really motivated allthough they have some problems because they haven't got any spare defenders. Even though they haven't been able to do it yet this season they are planning to bring an early offensive wave to get ahead at the start of the game.

Value should be on the away team with a +1 goal handicap in this match, not 100% convinced it won't lose though so I'm skipping this one.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 29:FC Brussels vs Cercle Brugge (-0.25) (5 Units) @ 2.030 -->SCORE 1 - 4 [WON + 5.150 Units]

Always nice to see the big plays comming trough easy

Season 07/08 Record:
Picks = 29
Won / Lost / Push = 18 / 8 / 3 (69 % Winners)
Units Bet = 98 units
Units Return = 128.998 units
Average Stake = 3.30 units
Profit = + 30.998 Units
ROI = +31.63 %

Jupiler League Betting Record Week 16: 1-0-0,+ 5,150 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 15: 1-0-0,+ 3,060 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 14: 0-1-0, - 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 13: 0-0-0, +0,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 12: 0-1-0, - 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 11: 1-0-0,+ 4,115 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 10: 1-0-1,+ 1,640 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 09: 1-1-0,+ 1,290 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 08: 0-1-1,- 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 07: 2-0-0,+ 4,947 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 06: 2-1-0,+ 4,634 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 05: 0-1-0, - 3,000 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 04: 2-1-0, + 1,983 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 03: 2-0-0, + 8,800 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 02: 3-1-0, + 3,665 Units
Jupiler League Betting Record Week 01: 2-0-1, + 3,714 Units
-> http://belgianleague.blogabet.com